This afternoon Congress was called (100 members of Congress) into an emergency meeting about what to do with North Korea. The last time this happened, the U.S. went to war with Saddam Hussain. The dollar is the primary in this pair and has completed (nearly) a recommendation made in this blog nearly 10 days ago. If we do see the dollar tank due to negative news, we could see people pulling money out of U.S. dollars and dumping them into Japanese Yen, which could potentially send this pair tumbling.
Let’s take a look at the upside on the USD/JPY 2-hour and see what progress has been made.
When large targets get hit in the market there is usually an immediate price reaction in the opposing direction — and that’s why I took an 80% profit on my original entry plan long. I risked 124 to go for 309 or so, and I took 254 in 11 days, but now’s the time to start looking to sell. With Congress coming together and this market striking such an important price point — coupled with the fact that this is a down A/B boundary screams “SELL ME SOON,” in my opinion. Now, how do we find a set up that provides us good risk versus reward and a reasonable stop loss order that is not way out there? Let’s see what we might want to look for:
Overall, the major/major AB boundary is in the north direction. However, there is a lot of room for a pullback in a volatile market like this. I believe we will get a few weeks of south movement no matter what and in my opinion, this could be a semi-artificial way for the U.S. to weaken the dollar a little in the short term. So, short term (for the next 5 days or so) I am looking to the short side of this pair — planning to enter at 111.266 and putting my stop above the monthly target to get out of the way of the market at 112.693. Exit is the D for the swing at 107.706.
However, barring some type of geopolitical situation Trump can’t talk his way out of, I like this pair long for the next month to roughly 122.00. That will take a long while though, and a lot can happen in the world between now and when we are at 122.00 on this pair.