AUD/USD Missed Monthly Target Tells Tale of Overbought Market

Trading with Fibonacci Retracement
AUD/USD Missed Monthly Target Tells Tale of Overbought Market
March 17, 2017 Marc McLain
Trading with Fibonacci Retracement

I want to continue looking for opportunities with the skills I have been taught by our Target Trading 2.0 course here at MTI.  The price target set for the month of March for AUD/USD is still to be reached and we have a nice sell high price that has been established this morning.  I think the market structure might mirror what we saw on the left side of this current high.  That structure might look something like the following:

If the above situation holds true, I am looking for a trade on the right side of a counter trend line break in the direction of the un-hit monthly target in light blue.  This is the missed target from the month of February.  Again these price points are very important to the market.  They pull the market towards them.  If this is the case, then what might an entry plan look like on this pair?

This is a classic technical setup, in my opinion, offering us great risk versus reward on the pair. What would really make this trade pop would be a u-turn on the gold market or continued negative sentiment on the USD.  The USDX chart looks like the negative sentiment short term might be over.  However, the gold chart looks like we might see a u-turn next week.

There exists the possibility that the gold market may test a deeper retracement again. If that is the case we can forget about the missed monthly target from February on our AUD/USD chart — because gold will take that market with it north on that test of the deeper .618 retracement.  We have to wait on the AUD/USD chart for the right side of the trend line to break and the low marked with the sell arrow before we start selling.  This will help us confirm that price is in our favor and that the sentiment is such that the overbought AUD/USD market will start to sell off.

Again I believe the above chart will be our true guide on the AUD/USD trade above.  If this u-turns we will have a very nice trade that could shape up in our favor but if we get that deeper potential test of the .618 pullback we have no trade.  We have to wait to see — and wait for the price to tell the tale. The fib on the Gold chart is large and will take several weeks to fill.

I hope this helps you make some money in time to make a positive impact on your trading.

March 17, 2017: AUD/USD UN-HIT monthly target tells a tale of an overbought market
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March 17, 2017: AUD/USD UN-HIT monthly target tells a tale of an overbought market
Market Traders Institute Forex analyst Brian Thomas profiles the latest trading opportunities using strategies he's employing this week. Today's review of AUD/USD is showing a nice sell high price -- especially if a u-turn happens...
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Market Traders Institute
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