In this opportunity, we are going to look at the AUD once again. I believe I have spotted a nice 2-to-1 trade here with a reasonable risk profile short term — let’s say over the next week. I have a Gold chart against the USD that looks like it did test the .618 pullback and bounce, as we predicted, which gave us an entry on the AUD/USD charts short last week. However, we did not make it to the missed target from February. I still like the south bias on this gold related pair and the XAU/USD charts make me think that this may be the plan this month.
Now, if we anticipate the above chart to go south for the next week or so, we would expect the opposite out of the AUD/USD. The weekly and monthly targets support that line of thinking, in my opinion.
Now, I don’t believe this set up has a lot of “meat on the bone,” so the targets are actually not what I am looking for in my trade. What I want to happen is for the targets to be struck early on and for gold to make a run this week — driving this chart the way I want it for my set up. I will simply place a pending order with the risk versus reward I am looking for based on the logic of the trade set up. Gold has been hot lately and I would not be surprised if we get a nice push on our AUD/USD chart later this week. We must, however, set a trap!
Here I would be looking to SELL into the AUD/USD — but only AFTER the weekly and monthly target are struck! I do not think it is mere coincidence that the D extension for this .860 pullback on the major DownSwing A/B, lines up so closely with the missed monthly target from February on this pair. I will be looking to place my stop at .76856 and look to enter south at roughly .76040 and then look to exit at .74444. This is a risk of 79 pips for a reward of 181.