As noted in this weekend’s SPY the Market report, trading over Thanksgiving week moved about as much as the adults after Thursday night’s turkey dinner.
Slow holiday week
In fact, Bloomberg.com reported, “Stocks moved the smallest amount since July as the Thanksgiving holiday damped trading following the previous week’s 3.3 percent surge in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.” With the Non-Farm Payroll Report coming out this Friday, and a Federal Reserve meeting concluding on December 16th, it seems many investors may have taken more than two days off last week in anticipation of more movement happening as we head into December.
Prior to the FOMC meeting later next month, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is making two speeches this week, which traders will parse for clues to a potential rate hike. Also this week, on Thursday the European Central Bank is meeting. TheStreet.com reports, “ECB President Mario Draghi has assured (some will say maybe even guaranteed?) global investors that the central bank more than likely will increase its quantitative easing with a step-up in the bond purchase program given that rates are already low.” One end result of these two central banks meeting could be dollar-euro parity, which will be closely followed by our Forex team.
Ongoing oil speculation
Along with the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report, this Friday also features a policy-setting meeting for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Ahead of this meeting, analysts expect trading on oil to be cautious. OPEC is expected to maintain its high output to protect market share from shale, but what that will do to the price of oil remains to be seen. Yahoo Finance noted, “investors are wary of recent comments by top crude exporter Saudi Arabia that it was open to working on price support measures with other oil producers.”
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